Wine Nerds: Is there a difference in mean price between Napa & Sonoma

This hypothesis testing is trying to determine if there is a difference in mean Price between Napa and Sonoma.

Step 1: Define the Hypothesis
HoNo difference in mean between Napa (1)  and Sonoma(2) scores
H1Difference in mean between Napa (1)  and Sonoma(2) scores

Step 2 Run the One Way Anova

Step 3 Explain the results
We fail to reject the null hypothesis
The P-value for Mood’s median test is >.05 which leads us to conclude that there is no difference in the means between Napa and Sonoma scores.

Step 4 Conclusion
There is no statistical difference in the means between Napa and Sonoma scores.  The one  thing to add here is that the way our sample was for all wine with a score of 87 or more which may skew the result.  
(*)We picked One way ANOVA because both samples are normal

Wine Nerds: Is there a difference in median Price between Napa & Sonoma

This hypothesis testing is trying to determine if there is a difference in median Price between Napa and Sonoma.

Step 1: Define the Hypothesis
HoNo difference in mean between Napa (1)  and Sonoma(2) prices
H1Difference in mean between Napa (1)  and Sonoma(2) prices

Step 2

Step 3 Explain the results
We fail to reject the null hypothesis
The P-value for Mood’s median test is >.05 which leads us to conclude that there is no difference in the medians between Napa and Sonoma prices.

Step 4 Conclusion
There is no statistical difference in the medians between Napa and Sonoma prices.
(*) We picked the mood median test because one of the two samples is non-normal.

Wine Nerds: Is there a difference in the Price spread between Napa & Sonom

This hypothesis testing is trying to determine if there is a difference in variance in Price between Napa and Sonoma.  It will explore whether the price spread is different based on the region.

Step 1 Define my Hypothesis
Ho: There is no difference in the Price spread between Napa and Sonoma
H1: There is a difference in the Price spread between Napa and Sonoma

Step 2: Run the HOV test (Homogeneity of Variance) 

Step 3 Explain the results
Reject the Null Hypothesis.
The P-value for Levene's test is <.05 which leads us to conclude that there is a difference in the spread between the prices in Sonoma and Napa.

Step 4: Conclusion
There is a statistical difference between the spread for the prices in Sonoma and Napa.  Also, if you look at the graph above you can see the spread is much wider for Napa (1) than Sonoma (2).  It basically means there is more variance in Napa prices than Sonoma.

Wine Nerds: Is there a Correlation between WS Scores & Prices for Napa Wines

This hypothesis testing is to try to understand if there is correlation between the average scores given by wine spectator and the average prices for wineries in Napa.

Step 1 Define my Hypothesis
Ho: There is no correlation between WS Score and Price for Napa Wines
H1: there is a correlation between WS Score and price for Napa wines

Step 2 run the regression Analysis
The regression equation is Napa Price = - 2040 + 23.5 Napa Score

Predictor        Coef       StDev          T        P
Constant      -2040.3       318.8      -6.40    0.000
Napa Sco       23.488       3.557       6.60    0.000 
S = 33.21       R-Sq = 57.7%     R-Sq(adj) = 56.4%
Analysis of Variance

Source            DF          SS          MS         F        P
Regression         1       48111       48111     43.61    0.000
Residual Error    32       35301        1103
Total             33       83412

Unusual Observations
Obs   Napa Sco   Napa Pri         Fit   StDev Fit    Residual    St Resid
21       92.5             68.33        132.36   11.72         -64.03       -2.06R
29      94.4            275.00       176.99   17.92          98.01        3.51RX
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual
X denotes an observation whose X value gives it large influence.

Step 3 Explain the results
We Reject the null hypothesis.

The P-value for Napa Score  is <.05 which leads us to conclude that Score is a good predictor of Price and there is a correlation between Score and Price

The R-sq(adj) value is high, which tells us that the regression equation explains a high percentage of the variation in the process (close 60%).

Step 4 Conclusion
It looks like that score is a strong predictor of a price for Napa wines.
Note:"Correlation does not imply causation

Wine Nerds: Is there Correlation between WS Scores & Prices for Sonoma Wines

This hypothesis testing is to try to understand if there is correlation between the average scores given by wine spectator and the average prices for wineries in Sonoma.

Step 1: Define the Hypothesis
Ho: There is no correlation between WS score and Price for Sonoma wines
H1: there is a correlation between WS score and price for Sonoma wines

Step 2 run the regression Analysis
The regression equation is  Sonoma Price = - 389 + 4.78 Sonoma Score

Predictor           Coef       StDev           T        P
Constant       -388.5       106.2      -3.66    0.001
Sonoma S        4.783       1.185       4.04    0.000
S = 9.461       R-Sq = 32.4%     R-Sq(adj) = 30.4%

Analysis of Variance
Source               DF          SS          MS          F            P
Regression         1      1458.3      1458.3     16.29    0.000
Residual Error    34      3043.3        89.5
Total             35      4501.6

Step 3 Explain the results
We reject the null hypothesis.

The P-value for Score  is <.05 which leads us to conclude that score is a good predictor of Price and there is correlation between Score and Price for Sonoma wines.

The R-sq(adj) value is low, which tells us that the regression equation can only explains about 30% of the variation, we therefore conclude that there are other factors that can explain variation.

Step 4 Conclusion
There is a correlation between scores and prices other factors are at play.
Note:"Correlation does not imply causation

Wine Nerds: Wine & Statistics

 The Wineries

The Wineries

Last week I attended a statistics class I wanted to apply some of the concepts to a real life example.After looking for a data set I remembered a spreadsheet a friend sent me before visiting Napa/Sonoma.  the spreadsheet included Wine Spectator's Scores and costs of the wines.

The next series of article will be looking at the data in a statistical approach.  We will be looking at the correlation of Score v. Price and Price between regions, etc.  Below is the list of wineries that will included in the study.

 

The Six Dollar Bordeaux

6:47 A.M. I cannot think of a better time to start writing about wine. External forces have kept me from this article for too long and I can no longer bear the pressure from our managing editor to submit. As I hear all too often from him “ZER WILL BE ORDER”.

My byline will tell you I am “Chef”. I generally am more concerned about the cooking then the drinking.  I cook. I smell. I taste. I eat. I think. When I am ready I write. I am newer to wine than my peers here at Az Wine Group, and while my colleagues have all experienced first growth Bordeaux and only see fit to journal their latest conquest or single vineyard masterpiece, it is my intention to write about my offbeat wine adventures and hopefully a few great bottles.

In pursuit of a 375 ml dark green bottle to store my leftover “Vin de Jour” I found this: Bordeaux Superieur from Chateau Bois Redon (2006) {$6}. Faced with the task of emptying the bottle for future use I chose a glass to sample the contents.

The Bois Redon blend is 75% Merlot 25% Cabernet Sauvignon. Grown and produced at the chateau near Saint-Emilion this wine is fruit forward, and ready to drink today.

Served: 68 degrees, directly from bottle to glass.

Color: Deep Garnet with a tongue that fades to pink and leaves a thin watery meniscus.
Nose: Microbiological typical of Bordeaux (read: Sweat and Time), Cherry, Black Pepper, (This is not a complex wine)
Flavor: Jammy with light tannins.
Food Pairing: Anything from hot dogs to osso bucco (At six bucks  {$10 for 750 ml} who cares, just pour and enjoy.)

This is an in-expensive wine that you can drink alone or serve to friends and pass off as legitimate Bordeaux. I it is my opinion that while this is not a wine of extraordinary quality it is an excellent value and is as good as most $20-$30 Bordeaux style blends out of California. Buy as many bottles as you want to drink over the next 4 years. You won’t be disappointed. As Bordeaux has been having record breaking vintages as of late, I would venture to say the future wines from Bois Redon will be equally good if not better.

(Per my editor I am not allowed to give a score, but if I were…. It would be 88)

Decanting, Aerating....

Why pour a perfectly good bottle of wine in one of those contraptions that wine stores like selling us, Not only do I need "special" glasses but I also need a decanter.

There are two reasons for using a decanter.  The first one and most common is that the wine is still young, usually “big”, tannic, high in alcohol, these wines will taste much more subtle, more elegant after an hour in a decanter where they had time to breathe, open up.  I strongly recommend decanting big wines like Zinfandel, Shiraz, Cabs, but also lighter wine like Pinots.  Most young wines get better after a little trip to the decanter.  Remember to taste the wine before it goes in and after it comes out to compare and see if you like what aerating did to the wine. 

The second reason for a decanter is to decant an old wine.  This is usually done very slowly and the reason is to remove the sediment that have accumulated in the bottle over the years.  Remember to do this very slowly and to drink the wine immediately, most older wine (20-30 year) will not benefit from aerating, they will usually go “flat” in 30 min, too much air will damage the wine.

A good resource to look at is the YouTube video from Tarbell here.

 Margaux &amp; Eve

Margaux & Eve

House Wine (or) How and Why To Make Your Personal Cellar Selections More Like a Restaurant Wine List: Part 3

In part II I addressed the first issue of building your collection: How many bottles of a given wine should you buy. In this installment I will dscuss the second important issue of building your wine collection.

The second issue you will face is which wines shall I buy?

First of all, what do you enjoy? We will into the red/ white battle in the future, but if your favorite house wine is $4.99 White Zinfandel then stock up with a case no questions asked. Do you like to pair wines with foods? How often do you have wine? Take inventory of what is important to you and buy accordingly. The momentary structure I suggest you impose will give you a freedom in the future you would have never imagined for yourself.

Rather than dictate which wines I will go over varietals/regions you should consider always having on hand in accordance with your personal tastes. That being said you should always keep at least one bottle on hand of the following wines for personal enjoyment, guests or meal pairings.

White wines:

- Riesling and Gewürztraminer: These often overlooked wines are work horses with foods from Mexican and Chinese to French or BBQ. These wines are fantastic to drink,  generally good values, and fine Rieslings can also age with amazing results.

- Chardonnay: Much loved, debated, and hated chardonnay is an important staple wine. Chardonnay is produced around the world to different effect so even though you think you hate a fruity or oaky monster keep trying and don’t be afraid to like one when you find it. For those who don’t have an aversion to chardonnay this may be a good candidate for an initial house wine. If this is you pick up 3-6 bottles of your favorite $15 dollar chardonnay. In addition try to have on hand 1 to 3 bottles of a better white burgundy such as a fine Chablis (shab-lee), Pugliny Montrachet, (poo-lee-nee mon-ra-shay) Chassange Montrachet ( sha-son mon-ra-shay), Meursault (mer-so) and finer Californian chardonnay.  These may be ready to drink right away or may benefit from cellar time. The white burgundies and finer California chardonnays are classified as “special wines” in my book.- Sauvignon Blanc: This grassy apple of a wine is a gem with foods from the sea or garden. New Zealand, Central California or French versions such as Sancerre (san ser) or Pouilly-Fume (poo-yee foo-meh). These tend to be built to drink young but on occasion can age 6-10 years. I would suggest you error on the side of caution. This is often another great house wine and values can be had buying the Kiwi brands.

- Champagne/Cremant/ Sparkling wine (Rosé champagne included): Buy three bottles of good quality Champagne and pick up a few bottles of Cremant or Sparkling wine (Piper Sonoma!) Drink and replenish these at least annually. Sometimes Tuesday is a special occasion!- Sauternes: This sweet nectar from heaven is something you should always have on hand. I suggest collecting these wines if you can. There are many great sauternes outside of the legendary Chateau d’Yquem. Premier cru half bottles can be had for less than $40 dollars.

Red Wines:Owning Red wines is both an art and a science. The art lies in knowing when to drink the wine and the science is in picking, buying and storing the wine until it is time to drink. Since this article is for the novice and intermediate wine drinker/owner I will give you my opinions and take my lumps from those who are certain they know better. Since many red wines are sturdily built and take time to reach their potential I will offer a mix of wines that should be kept and drank early as well as for the long haul.

- Pinot Noir/ Red Burgundy: This varietal is popular and you can’t throw a stick without hitting somebody with an opinion. While the great burgundian wines have held up for decades in the bottle, the verdict is still out on new world pinot. First of all domestic pinot noir has not been around long enough to know how a 40 year old wine will taste and second of all, it is marketed and designed to be fruit forward and drank today. Buy a few bottles of domestic pinot noir that spoke to you from a wine trip or tasting event. Study up and buy 1 or 2 bottles of French burgundy that stretch your wallet a bit. Found for a good price this is a good house wine option. Drink your friends pinot’s whenever possible.

- Cabernet Sauvignon: Buy 6 bottles of big cabernet each year. Oakville/ Napa is my suggestion for people who are starting out, want big fruit, complexity and a baseline. Washington and Chilean Cabs are also great. Put these in your cellar and drink them over time. You will have a monster collection to enjoy your entire life. Don’t skimp. If you think cabernet sauvignon is your house wine choice, start with Tempranillo (below) until your collection matures.

- Merlot: unless you rely on $8 bottles for your daily drinker, skip it all together and buy Bordeaux.- Tempranillo: This is a wine that can be enjoyed now while your Bordeaux and Cab mellow out. These wines are fruit forward and the tannins are soft. Best of all you can have a case for under $120 dollars that will knock your socks off. Tempranillo is my top choice for a red house wine.- Syrah/Shiraz: Go for Australia and Santa Barbara: These fruit bombs will make you and your guests happy at a great value. If you really love a fine syrah consider collecting them. Penfolds Grange is one of the world’s great wines. With excellent bottles at less than 10 dollars Syrah is a wonderful house wine.

- Bordeaux: These wines are intimidating. The first growth wines are legendary with price tags to prove it. The D2 route through Bordeaux is heavy with history however you can buy new and even aged second thru fifth growth wines for a good price. Look at the ratio of merlot to cabernet sauvignon in these wines. The higher the percentage of merlot the faster it is generally ready to drink.  Buy 3 to 6 bottles of the highest scoring blockbusters you can afford every year and keep them like you will your cabernet collection. You will have a good wine life.

- Californian Bordeaux Blends: Hold off on buying these bottles for now unless you have tried them and can’t live without them. Once you have become more familiar with value Bordeaux, the Californian blends can be an even better value. I am only suggesting you hold off initially so you have the experience of Bordeaux for the fact once you find a good Californian producer you love you may never go back.

- Zinfandel: the California native is another key to a great collection. While these can age for many years, like Tempranillo, many red zinfandels are ready to drink early while you wait for your cabs and Bordeaux to mature.

Rosé wines:Yes, buy and drink all summer long. Don’t keep them. They may not stay good for more than two years.

~~~In part IV I will show you how many bottles you need and help you to plan for the future~~~

 

Road Warriors: The Ultimate Wine Travel Kit

Traveling with AZWINEGROUP requires having a set of glasses and a decanter.  We tried many different setups but none ever met our "gearhead" requirements.  So when I embarked upon building a travel kit, I decided that it needed to be both rugged and elegant.  The AZWINEGROUP Wine Travel Kit ended up consisting of the following:

 Pelican 1500

Pelican 1500

Step 1: Pelican case.  Pelican cases are the toughest in the world, and are used in every industry including our military.

Step 2: Riedel O glasses.  Stemless glasses are good for traveling, difficult to knock over, and more compact to transport, but still retain a beautiful style that can accommodate any wine.

Step 3: Riedel Half Cabernet decanter:  Nothing much bigger than that will fit into the case.  However, it is still large enough to allow us to decant the second half of the bottle while savoring the first half.

Step 4: Pluck foam.  New pelican cases now come with foam that can be easily shaped for any device.

Et Voila: Traveling with AZWINEGROUP requires having a set of glasses and a decanter.  We tried many different setups but none ever met our "gearhead" requirements.  So when I embarked upon building a travel kit, I decided that it needed to be both rugged and elegant.  The AZWINEGROUP Wine Travel Kit ended up consisting of the following:

Step 1: Pelican case.  Pelican cases are the toughest in the world, and are used in every industry including our military.

Step 2: Riedel O glasses.  Stemless glasses are good for traveling, difficult to knock over, and more compact to transport, but still retain a beautiful style that can accommodate any wine.

 Four Glasses, a Decanter and bottle opener.

Four Glasses, a Decanter and bottle opener.

Step 3: Riedel Half Cabernet decanter:  Nothing much bigger than that will fit into the case.  However, it is still large enough to allow us to decant the second half of the bottle while savoring the first half.

Step 4: Pluck foam.  New pelican cases now come with foam that can be easily shaped for any device.

 

House Wine (or) How and Why To Make Your Personal Cellar Selections More Like a Restaurant Wine List: Part 2

In Part I, I discussed the background of why you should consider building your collection like a wine list. In this installment I will discuss the first of two issues in buying and selecting wines for your collection.

The first issue to conquer is how many bottles should I buy of a given wine?
This is more often an issue of space and cash on hand than the availability of a particular wine. Here are my recommendations and an accompanying rationale.

1 bottle: You should only buy one bottle if:
- it is all you can afford
- it is a gift for somebody you don’t know well
- it is a wine you are testing out and you can easily get more if you love it
- it is a special bottle and is all you can afford


2 bottles: it is all you can afford
- you have picked a wine to take to a dinner of 8+ people
- it is all the bottles left to buy


3 bottles: Three bottles is the point at which you begin to be serious. Three bottles is a good starting point once you have picked a house wine. In addition, perhaps you tasted a wine at a restaurant or at a tasting/party and you know you love it and have to have it. This is known as a “Special Bottle”. Once you have 3 bottles of a special wine you can start to drink them with more abandon. My plan is to have a bottle when It is appropriate to start to drink it (hopefully just after buying it), have a second bottle at it’s perceived midpoint and the third bottle nearer to its peak (hopefully not missing the peak) as an example the 2008 Mondavi Oakville Cabernet recently awarded 94 points…. Drink in 2013, 2020, 2027. Keep in mind some wines will not keep long so always buy multiple bottles with a plan.


6 bottles: If you are at six bottles you both are fortunate and have a problem. The problem is space. For your next major wine purchase procure a wine storage solution (cellar/ fridge) to protect your wines. At the six bottle level you have the luxury to pull out your wine much more often and either taste it regularly as a house wine, taste it more frequently over time, or invite me over…


12+ bottles: If this is you have a party, seek counseling,  or put the bottles in the 500 bottle EuroCave and don’t forget about them. Please.

~~~In part III I will address which wines you should consider buying~~~

House Wine (or) How and Why To Make Your Personal Cellar Selections More Like a Restaurant Wine List: Part 1

There are many types of wine buyers and drinkers: the buy and hold, the buy and drink, the you buy it I drink it!… I am the type who doesn’t buy enough of the bottles offered to me and wish I had bought more. Furthermore I won’t drink those bottles for fear they will be so amazing I will wish I had bought more at which point I would fall into deep despair.

This fear originated during a recent Az Wine Group purchase with me buying ZERO bottles of the “Tench” from Nickel and Nickel (Did you know it is next door to Screaming Eagle?) and only two bottles of the famed Chateau Grillet. I have been fretting this now for 3 months longing to taste the Oakville cab and the renown Condrieu. I finally had the courage to pull out a bottle of Grillet for a big dinner we had. It was worth it. Its’ honeyed almond nose was beautiful alongside halibut with coconut curry sauce. The problem is how in the world will I ever part with my last remaining bottle? I admit it; I am a luxury hoarder. 

Because of my experience I have formulated a plan on how to stock my cellar (my tiny 52 bottle cellar) based upon the restaurant model, a wine inventory sorted into excellent “house wines” (frequent favorites or daily drinkers) and special wines. The reason for doing this is so that I may overcome my paralysis in drinking my own wines by always having a go-to value bottle on hand. It is difficult to throw $30 to $100+ down the gullet no matter how amazing the experience is so I keep the special wines for special times and always keep my house wines around.

~~~In Part II I will discuss the first issue of building your collection: How many bottles should I buy of a given wine? ~~~